If voters went to the polls this week, 26 percent would vote for Vas, 24 for Sires - a shift from a poll taken last October that showed Sires leading 30 to 22 percent.
While - to borrow a phrase from Revolutionary American hero John Paul Jones - Sires has not yet begun to fight, launching his campaign in a sudden surge over the last few weeks, Vas appears to have accomplished a mean feat in getting nearly equal name recognition in the voting district, 36 percent to Sires' 38. This shift up from 15 percent for Vas in October may be due to his tireless campaigning throughout the district, and with increasing support from Jersey City and Bayonne politicians. Vas has toured parts of Jersey City with up and coming Jersey City Councilman Steve Fulop, and has received the endorsement of Sandra Cunningham. In Bayonne, Councilman Anthony Chiappone has thrown his support behind Vas, and recently turned over his Broadway campaign headquarters to serve as Vas's Bayonne campaign center. Next week, recently elected Bayonne Councilman Gary LaPelusa is expected to endorse Vas as well.
A divided district
Bayonne, Jersey City and Newark become key battleground areas where Vas needs to pick up ground to catch Sires.
With the local races in Bayonne settled except for the runoff between Incumbent Mayor Joseph Doria and retired Municipal Judge Patrick Conaghan, Vas may actually get an edge in seeking voter support. Chiappone's remarkable first round victory in the at-large race on May 9, allows him to help Vas pick up votes in Bayonne.
Victories by Vas and - if Chiappone chooses to support him - Conaghan for mayor could give Chiappone the clout he needs to run in the 2007 primary for the state assembly, retaking a seat he lost to Jersey City Schools Superintendent Charles Epps in 2005. With Epps falling on hard times due to questions about a recently school-financed trip to England, Chiappone may well be a rising star again.
Sires - who apparently sent workers to Bayonne to help Mayor Doria in the May 9 election - may find Bayonne a tough place to drum up support, even though Doria's reelection machine is working in dual campaigns. Not only does Doria have to drag his voters to the polls again in the run off election, but also for Sires a week earlier in the Democratic primary. Sires may not be able to count on the broad turnout he needs to keep his lead over Vas.
Sires, however, has over the last few months enjoyed a double digit lead in Bayonne, and even if Vas catches up, the margin of victory for Vas might not be great enough to make up for the expected high turn out of pro-Sires people in West New York and Weehawken. Union City, where Mayor Brian Stack crushed his opponents by a 9 to 1 margin, may be key to a Sires victory. Last week, this column mistakenly stated that column B signs were being posted everywhere in Union City, and mistakenly attributed them to Vas when Vas will actually appear in column C on the ballot.
The column B signs, of course, were for Stack's reelection, but strangely enough continue to go up even though the municipal election there is over. What this portends is anybody's guess, although Vas has received a warm welcome at some Stack-related fundraisers in the past.
Stack is in a curious position. With his eye on replacing State Senator Bernard Kenny next year in the 33 rd District, Stack might want to see Sires - a known Kenny supporter - moved out of the county to a seat in Washington, rather than remaining mayor and possibly Kenny's running mate.
Stack's massive victory of his opponents was partly due to infighting by his opposition, which gutted the stronger original ticket for one that Stack could walk over with no problem. Had the original ticket prevailed, Stack would still have won, but by a 2 to 1 margin, instead of the 9-1 slaughter May 9 proved.
Stack's huge municipal victory showed how powerful his organization is, and if turned toward helping Sires, would leave Vas with a lot to make up for elsewhere in the district. Stack, too, could choose to remain neutral, leaving Union City voters to choose for themselves. This could give Vas some support, although many will likely buy into Sires' compelling argument that a loss to Vas would leave Hudson County without its own member of the House of Representatives.
Of course, Vas and others argue, the 13th District is currently vacant as a result of Bob Menendez being named U.S. Senator earlier this year and Gov. Jon Corzine's failure to call for an early special election. Vas' campaign has harped on this point relentlessly, blaming Sires for playing politics by avoiding an early Special Election and leaving immigrant-rich 13th District voiceless during the immigration battles currently being waged in Congress.
Militello's endorsement may have opposite effect
The Bayonne race for mayor became infinitely more interesting with third place finisher Vincent Militello throwing his support behind Doria, rather than expectedly supporting Conaghan.
Militello said Conaghan's support of a container port for the former Military Ocean Terminal was the deciding factor. But politically, Militello may have done Conaghan a favor.
Most political observers see Militello voters as anti-Doria, many of whom would likely have sat out the run-off election had not Militello cast his lot with Doria. These voters may be motivated back to the polls if only to send a message saying they disapproved of Militello's choice.
Several observers believe the second place finish for Conaghan may actually have improved his chances for a victory in the run-off, since the low voter turn out on May 9 may have been the result of voters believing Doria would win on the first round.
Conaghan, indeed, may be able to tap into these anti-Doria reserves by modifying his position on the container port to one that more closely resembles Militello's plan, and thus shifting the campaign back to high taxes.
Doria's campaign team will be remarkably weary on June 13, after having drummed up support for Sires and then Doria again. Doria had relied on West New York street workers on May 9. Will he see them again helping out on June 13 a week after Sires has won or lost the Democratic Primary?
Hoboken Republicans look to take over county party
Meanwhile, Hoboken seems to be stirring with curious new movements, such as the Young Republicans who are looking to take over what they consider a non-existent county party. Young Republicans are targeting County Republican Chairman Jose Arango, saying that he is too close to Democrats and his endorsement of Stack and Doria, as well as his employment in the administration of Jersey City Mayor Jerramiah Healy make him too beholden to Democrats to effectively create Republican campaigns.
Hoboken also raises a number of questions about the future of municipal leadership. While Mayor Dave Roberts claims he will not be seeking reelection in 2009, the field of candidates may not be as strong as first envisioned, especially with the recent election of Theresa Millutillo to the school board. Some observers believe newcomers have finally come into their own, and that the influx of people from other parts of the state has finally brought an end of Old Hoboken's domination of local politics.
Old Hoboken - people connected to the traditional party structure that has its roots in the original population - may not be able to dictate who the next mayor will be, as newcomers get more involved.
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